"Большая ставка": Майкл Бёрри: 99,9% инвесторов ничего не понимают, а биткоинщики тоже?

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Michael Burry's statement that 99.9% of investors who think they know what they own just don't might be extremely accurate considering most relevant market conditions. Bitcoin is not an exception to this structural misperception of how assets behave.

What's up with Bitcoin?

Following a significant decline earlier in the year, Bitcoin is currently in a recovery phase. A tightening structure resembling a symmetrical triangle has been formed as the price has recovered from the mid-$60,000 region and is moving into the mid-$70,000s. Indecisiveness is reflected in this type of formation. While sellers are still active on strength, buyers are intervening on dips to reduce volatility before a potential breakout.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSDT Chart by TradingView">

Technically speaking, Bitcoin is still below longer-term resistance levels, but is making an effort to regain short-term moving averages. The broader structure hasn't completely returned to a bullish regime because the 100- and 200-day trends are still above. Although a sustained trend expansion has not yet been confirmed, the RSI is rising toward higher levels, indicating improving momentum.

This is where Burry's argument is more relevant. Many investors own Bitcoin with a predetermined narrative, typically associated with macro hedging or long-term appreciation. They frequently overlook how Bitcoin functions in the short to medium term as a liquidity-driven asset.

Like any other speculative instrument, it responds to capital flows, positioning, and global risk conditions. Bitcoin does not function in a vacuum when sentiment changes or liquidity becomes scarce.

Bitcoin is no longer independent

The misconception is that owning Bitcoin inevitably corresponds to a particular result. The performance of the asset actually depends on external factors that many holders are unable to monitor or fully comprehend. This covers cross-asset correlations, leverage in derivatives markets, and macro policy.

Although it's not in a confirmed market growth phase, Bitcoin is not weak either. The market is awaiting a catalyst, and in the interim, prices are constrained to a smaller range.

Burry's remark is more about highlighting a lack of knowledge than it is about discounting investors. Understanding an asset's behavior is not the same as possessing it. In the case of Bitcoin, this disparity is most apparent at times like these, when it's unclear what will happen next and expectations are based more on conjecture than on structure.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/u_today:9b37a969e094b:0-big-short-michael-burry-99-9-of-investors-are-clueless-are-bitcoiners-too/