Криптовалютный рынок обвалился шесть месяцев назад: улучшилась ли ситуация, или "медведи" по-прежнему контролируют ситуацию?

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Key takeaways:

Bitcoin orderbook depth has plummeted by 50% since September 2025, signaling a substantial decline in overall market liquidity.

Indicators suggest that the current market fragility stems more from recent 2026 trends than from the 2025 flash crash itself.

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets took a massive hit on Oct. 10, 2025, precisely 6 months ago. That devastating flash crash wiped out a record-breaking $19 billion in leveraged positions while some altcoins collapsed 40% to 80%. Many traders speculated that multiple market makers had been wiped out, while others accused the Binance exchange of blatant manipulation.

Was the crypto market structure actually altered after the October 2025 crash, and what has changed in liquidity, derivatives markets, and institutional metrics?

Bitcoin’s aggregate orderbook depth, ranging from +1% to -1%, typically oscillated between $180 million and $260 million in September 2025. On most days, there would be a healthy $90 million in bids, but that was not the case on Oct. 10, 2025. A mix of technical issues at Binance and auto-deleveraging on decentralized exchanges caused a temporary liquidity lapse.

During the flash crash, Bitcoin’s orderbook depth entered a downward spiral, stabilizing near $150 million by mid-November 2025. Currently, Bitcoin’s order book depth seldom exceeds $130 million, down 50% from levels seen in September 2025.

The already fragile market conditions deteriorated further in February 2026. Bitcoin’s orderbook depth plunged below $60 million for nearly 10 days as the price struggled to hold the $65,000 level. Cryptocurrency market volumes declined considerably, especially in the derivatives markets.

Cryptocurrency derivatives volumes oscillated between $40 billion and $130 billion over the past 30 days, falling short of the $200 billion mark commonly seen in September 2025. Still, the reduced appetite for futures contracts is not necessarily a bearish indicator as longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) are evenly matched at all times.

Demand for bullish leverage remains weak, ETF volumes lag

The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate can be used to assess traders’ risk appetite.

Under normal conditions, the indicator should range between 6% to 12% to compensate for the cost of capital. Excessive demand for bearish leverage can push the indicator below 0%, meaning shorts are the ones paying to keep their positions open. Data indicate stable conditions throughout November 2025, followed by a sharp decline in February 2026.

Curiously, volumes of US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were not impacted by the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash. In fact, by late November, activity in those instruments jumped to their highest levels in 20 months at $11.5 billion per day.

Bitcoin ETFs regularly traded at volumes above $4 billion per day between January and March 2026, but eventually fell below $3.3 billion by the first week of April. Similarly, US-listed Ether (ETH) ETFs average daily volume dropped to $1 billion, down from $2 billion in September 2025.

Orderbook depth, funding rate, derivatives and ETF volumes all point to a much less healthy cryptocurrency market in April 2026 relative to 6 months prior. However, given that the market structure held relatively firm through February 2026, the relevance of the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash seems much less than previously imagined.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:c97dfdc26094b:0-crypto-crashed-six-months-ago-have-markets-improved-or-are-bears-still-in-charge/