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1058 ET - Bitcoin prices have managed to stay relatively stable as the Iran conflict rages on, even with the surge in crude oil prices applying pressure to other higher-risk assets. Bitcoin has managed to trade fairly tightly around the $70,000-mark, after prices briefly dipped on the initial news of a strike. Maintaining this price level is unusual for bitcoin, says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau in a note. "In 2022, when the war in Ukraine began, bitcoin eventually plummeted as oil reached $120 (a barrel), albeit it took a while for this to happen," says Puckrin. "In 2020, during the Covid pandemic, bitcoin's price fell some 40%, along with other risk assets." In both cases, bitcoin later rallied to new all-time highs. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1058 ET - The dollar could rise further even if Middle East tensions ease, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. The conflict has boosted the dollar due to its safe-haven role and its position as an energy exporter as oil prices rise. Additionally, U.S. growth expectations for this year have been revised up to 2.5%. This contrasts with forecasts of eurozone growth of 1.2% and Japan growth of 0.8%. That means the dollar should strengthen in coming months even if it suffers a short-term bout of declines on any deceleration in the conflict, Juckes says. "If tensions don't ease and energy prices stay high for longer, the dollar will be even stronger." The DXY dollar index rises 0.4% to 99.634.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1052 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb further due to worries about inflation as energy prices soar. The U.K. is seen as particularly sensitive to an energy-price shock, causing markets to price in elevated levels of inflation, AJ Bell's Danni Hewson says in a note. Money markets price in a 50% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points in 2026, LSEG data show. This marks a significant shift from the expected BOE rate cuts which were priced in prior to the Middle East War. Ten-year gilt yields climb 7.1 basis points to last trade at 4.771%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1036 ET - European investors are moving their investments away from credit risk exposure into safer positions due to concerns about inflation, Bank of America credit strategists say in a note. Concerns about a resurgence in inflation due to high energy prices have led to increased volatility in the sovereign bonds market and these developments are likely to lead to investment outflows from European credit funds, the strategists say. "We expect this [outflow] to be moderate as market participants have derisked markedly." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1021 ET - Sterling rises to a five-week high against the euro as markets price in the prospect of the Bank of England pivoting towards interest-rate rises. Higher energy prices resulting from the Iran war are expected to add to the U.K.'s already elevated inflation. Markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate rise this year with a move nearly fully priced by end of 2027, LSEG data show. Before the war, markets expected two rate cuts this year. However, this repricing can only provide so much support to sterling, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "U.K. households are among the most vulnerable to rising energy prices." The euro falls to a low of 0.8616 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0944 ET - Canada's trade figures for January were soft against a backdrop of elevated uncertainty, despite some temporary factors such as weather and automotive production disruptions, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets' Shelly Kaushik says. The economist says that while higher energy prices will help Canadian exports in the coming months, other trade flows will remain under pressure until a deal with the U.S. is reached. The volume of exports in January fell 6.1% on-month, while imports were down a lesser 2.4%.(robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0936 ET - The Australian dollar trades near an 35-year high against the Japanese yen as oil prices remain elevated due to the Iran war, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Australia is a net energy exporter and the country's central bank is expected to raise interest rates further. Japan is an energy importer. However, the high volatility, risk-averse environment could curb demand for carry trades, discouraging investors from borrowing in the low-yielding yen to buy the higher-yielding Australian dollar, Foley says. "Japan still has a healthy current account surplus, and this suggest scope for sharp pullbacks in times of elevated market uncertainty." The Australian dollar falls 0.1% to 113.29 yen but stays near the overnight high of 113.68 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0912 ET - A dive in Canadian exports in January alongside a large fall in wholesale sales volumes suggests downside risk to the flash estimate GDP was flat to start the year, Capital Economics' Stephen Brown says. If that is the case, the economist reckons there will be less pressure on the Bank of Canada to respond to the jump in oil prices by considering interest rate increases any time soon. Exports fell 4.7% on-month, outpacing a 1.1% drop in imports to widen the goods-trade deficit to C$3.6 billion. Wholesale trade volumes fell 1.5% on-month. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0854 ET - Treasury yields rise as U.S. labor market stays resilient amid the global turmoil. Weekly jobless claims decline to 213,000 from a revised 214,000, versus WSJ consensus of 215,000, indicating layoffs remain contained. U.S. January trade deficit is narrower than expected, at $54.46 billion. Housing starts also surprise on the upside. Oil prices rise as energy production and flow remain under threat. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright says on CNBC the Navy isn't ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz just yet. The 10-year rises to 4.228% from 4.207% yesterday. The two-year is at 3.651%, up from 3.634%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0809 ET - Bitcoin trims its losses to trade back above $70,000 as oil prices pull back from their highs that were driven by the widening Middle East conflict. Brent crude earlier rose back above $100 per barrel before dropping back to last trade at $97.93. The rise followed news that two foreign fuel tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters Wednesday. Oil prices remain the driver of macroeconomic sentiment, Marex crypto analyst Louis De Backer says in a note. When crude spikes the market immediately reprices inflation risks and cryptocurrencies are treated as risk-sensitive assets, he says. Bitcoin falls 0.2% to $70,485, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0803 ET - The dollar is likely to remain supported in the near term unless there is a credible de-escalation in the Iran war, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. The conflict is driving safe-haven flows to the dollar, they say. Higher oil prices stemming from the war also boosts the dollar as it hardens views that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive for longer than markets previously anticipated. In the longer term, however, markets are "underestimating the likely scope of U.S. policy easing once concerns around energy prices begin to fade, with accompanying dollar downside implications." The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 99.291. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0758 ET - The Bank of England is more likely to delay cutting interest rates rather than cancel them altogether, Capital Economic's Paul Dales says in a note. The Middle East war has led to a surge in energy prices and raised concerns about high inflation, leading investors to scale back expectations for interest-rate cuts. U.K. money markets price in a 5% chance of a BOE rate cut during the March 19 policy meeting, down from 83% chance priced in prior to the Middle East war, LSEG data show. Capital Economics expects the BOE to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% at the March, April and June rate decisions. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260312007551:0/