Bitcoin демонстрирует восходящую тенденцию, которая может привести к тому, что его стоимость достигнет 80 000 долларов, – так показывают результаты технического анализа. – Обсуждение на рынке

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0611 GMT - Bitcoin is in an uptrend, based on its daily chart, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. Given $80,000 is now within reach, "it would be surprising not to see [bitcoin] at least test that level, with the potential for choppy, two-way volatility around it," the senior market analyst says. While a small bearish divergence has formed on two-day and 14-day relative strength index indicators, the 14-day RSI has yet to reach overbought territory, he says. This leaves the door open for bitcoin to rise above $80,000 before any meaningful pullback takes hold, the analyst adds. Bitcoin is little changed at $78,296.00, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0609 GMT - Flash estimate purchasing managers index data from Europe and the U.S. might get only muted reaction barring major deviation from expectations, Danske Bank's Joel Rossier says in a note. "Unless they deviate significantly from consensus, we do not expect any significant reaction to the data," the senior analyst says. Analysts in The Wall Street Journal's poll forecast the eurozone composite PMI at 50.0 in April, down from 50.5 in March. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0551 GMT - The U.S two- to 10-year Treasury curve remains "remarkably flat" and has room to steepen, ING's Padhraic Garvey says in a note. ING identifies room for short-tenor rates to fall with an eventual rebuild in the rate-cut narrative in the coming month, while long-tenor rates could remain under sticky upward pressure, at least in the coming month, the regional head of research, Americas, says. "We should see some relative flattening on the 2/5-year segment, but more relative steepening on the 5/10-year (while the overall 2/10-year curve comes under steepening pressure)," Garvey says. The two-year Treasury yield trades at 3.812%, and the 10-year yield trades at 4.322%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0533 GMT - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 1% in June from the current 0.75% and continue raising rates every six months thereafter to a 1.75% terminal rate, says MFS Investment Management analyst Carl Ang. The BOJ's new measure of consumer inflation, which shows underlying price growth is only slightly below the bank's 2% target, can be used to justify further hikes, Ang says. The output gap, which was recently revised upward from negative to positive, also implies that Japan's economy is operating above potential, the analyst adds. The BOJ's policy board is set to meet Monday and Tuesday, with the next gathering scheduled for mid-June. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0532 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade amid higher oil prices as the Middle East cease-fire and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continue. "Markets open on a weak foot with headlines from a locked in standoff over the Strait of Hormuz dominating the news," Danske Bank's Joel Rossier says in a note. News from the Middle East will continuously dominate market movements, but PMI releases, and their price components in particular, might attract some attention, the senior analyst says. U.S. Treasury yields rise across maturities. The two-year yield is up 1.6 basis points at 3.809%, and the 10-year yield rises 2.7 basis points to 4.320%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0528 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade as oil prices are higher as the Middle East cease-fire continues but so does the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. "Markets open on a weak foot with headlines from a locked in standoff over the Strait of Hormuz dominating the news," Danske Bank's Joel Rossier says in a note. News from the Middle East will continuously dominate market movements, but PMI releases, and their price components in particular, might attract some attention, the senior analyst says. U.S. Treasury yields rise across maturities. The two-year yield is up 1.6 basis points at 3.809% and the 10-year yield rises 2.7 basis points to 4.320%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0524 GMT - The rally in U.S. Treasurys is unlikely to gather much more momentum, with the market pricing of the Federal Reserve's rate path in line with Capital Economics' baseline scenario, chief economic adviser John Higgins says in a note. "With investors now pricing in a path for the federal funds rate that is broadly similar to the one we envisage in our baseline scenario, we doubt the rally in bonds will gather much more momentum," he says. Higher inflation now makes it unlikely the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but Capital Economics expects rate cuts in 2027 under its baseline scenario. Capital Economics forecasts the year-end level of the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25%; it currently trades at 4.320%, up 2.7 basis points, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0518 GMT - The Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked during the indefinite ceasefire is a negative macro catalyst, but risk assets seem to be taking it in stride for now, Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. The blockage of the strait brings with it inflationary tailwinds and growth headwinds, the senior research strategist says. "However, risk assets seem to be relatively comfortable with that backdrop for the time being, and will probably remain so," he says. Risk assets are expected to continue taking the path of least resistance so long as light remains visible at the end of the tunnel, and barring a material further deterioration in the situation on the ground, which appears unlikely, Brown says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0516 GMT - The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75% while expressing a hawkish stance at next week's meeting, says MFS Investment Management analyst Carl Ang. "We expect the bank's attention to be on the yen's weakness, given its price and financial stability mandates with a weak yen contributing to higher consumer prices," Ang says. While the dollar has kept below its 160 yen resistance level reasonably well, lower market liquidity during Japan's Golden Week holidays following the BOJ meeting may provide an opportunity for government currency intervention and a knee-jerk appreciation in the yen within the 150-160 yen range, the analyst adds. The dollar was last trading at 159.55 yen.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0442 GMT - The rupiah and other Asian currencies weaken against the U.S. dollar in afternoon trading amid lingering geopolitical risks. The outcomes of the U.S.-Iran conflict, as well as their cease-fire, remain uncertain, two foreign-exchange strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a report. "Mediators are attempting to arrange a U.S.-Iran meeting on Friday, but Iranian officials have signaled talks will not begin until the U.S. lifts the blockade," the strategists write. The dollar rises 0.8% to 17,308 rupiah after earlier touching an intraday high of 17,315 rupiah, according to LSEG data. The dollar is 0.6% higher at 60.444 Philippine pesos and is up 0.4% at 32.35 baht. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0244 GMT - Asia faces a stagflationary shock, a combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment, due to the Mideast conflict, as the region is more vulnerable to rising energy prices than others globally, Capital Economics' economists say in a note. The region is heavily reliant on imported energy, particularly on shipments that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, they say. However, the surge in overseas demand for electronics, especially artificial intelligence-related products, should help Asia to offset the negative effects caused by the war.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0232 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session, but may be weighed by lingering geopolitical risks. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, say analysts of CIMB's Treasury and Markets Research in a research report. The analysts note Iranian gunboats fired on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz while U.S. forces intercepted two Iranian tankers. Investors also await clearer signals on a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, the analyst add. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 1.2761 Singapore dollars, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260423001824:0/